China will catch up to the USA in algorithm quality but will lag in computational power
The geopolitical artificial intelligence race between the USA and China is reaching a critical point. Research by the “AI and Compute” laboratory of the RAND Corporation’s Center for Technology and Security Policy under the leadership of Professor Lennart Heim reveals a paradoxical situation.
Forecasts indicate that in 25 China will catch up to the USA in all key model parameters. However, parity in algorithm quality does not mean equality of capabilities. The key limitation lies in China’s 10-fold lag in computational power. This creates a fundamental gap in practical applicability of technologies.
The analytical study highlights the critical moment of 26, when the center of gravity will shift from conversational systems to agentic artificial intelligence. Each such agent will perform the work of at least 1, often dozens of high-class specialists.
10-fold superiority in computational power transforms into 10 and 100-fold advantage in intellectual workforce. This concerns economics, scientific research and military affairs. In their opinion, qualitative parity of algorithms between the USA and China masks a critical gap in computational infrastructure. Which determines real application capabilities.
